JPN225 4h Elliot wave and pattern analysis

11 thg 6, 2016

On the 4h chart a Head & Shoulders pattern is in progress. If price breaks the neckline, the target is +- 14700 based on measuring the gap between the neckline and the head. PLUS on this point is also a trendline which can provide support for the price. The 2 possible Elliot Wave scenarios that I have in mind are:

Scenario 1(blue scenario): Wave IV has finished, currently riding wave 2 down of V up. This scenario is invalid if price sets a lower low.

And:

Scenario 2(pink scenario): Currently riding wave c down of IV down. Target +- 14700. This scenario becomes invalid if price sets a higher high.

Personally I favor Scenario 2(the pink scenario) because then most parts of my puzzle come together (Head & Shoulders pattern, EW count, Trendlines etc.)

A possible strategy could be: SHORT position if price breaks the neckline with a Stop Loss of : 16845 (1 point above high of JUN 6) and Take Profit of: 14750 (a little above the target and trendline).

Please click HERE if you want to see the full analysis!

Have a nice weekend and happy trading!
Jouke Hartman