MCL About to Take the Express Elevator Down

On the 15-min chart, MCL has completed a clean double top at 64.50, with neckline support broken at 63.00. This pattern is forming within a broader descending channel, adding higher-timeframe confluence for further downside.

Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias – 70% Probability)
- Entry Zone: 63.80–64.00 retest of broken neckline
- Stop Loss: 64.20 (above retest high)
- Target 1: 62.50 (recent swing low / intraday liquidity pocket)
- Target 2: 61.50 (lower channel boundary)
- Target 3: 60.80 (HTF measured move from double top)

Technical confluence:
Pattern completion, retest rejection, descending channel structure, macro trend alignment.

Bullish Invalidator (30% Probability)
A sustained reclaim of 64.20 with volume would invalidate the breakdown, likely triggering a short squeeze back into 64.50–64.70. This scenario is less likely without a macro catalyst during Tokyo liquidity, but remains a risk consideration.

The Tokyo open often sees thin liquidity in oil futures, meaning stop hunts above retest zones are common. Patience is key wait for rejection confirmation before entering short.

Bearish unless we see a confirmed reclaim and hold above 64.20. Short from 63.80–64.00 offers a high R:R toward the 62.50–60.80 range.