$MSFT Chart ahead of #FOMC March Meeting (March Prediction)

I think fed will surprise the markets with a 0.50 rate hike at the March 15-16 meeting. I think the rate hike + a spike in bond yields will decimate the market. In panic many retail traders will get washed out and sit on the sidelines. In response, funds & whales will prop up the market on low volume to then decimate the market with shorts. They will rinse and repeat all the way down IMO

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Since China is locking down Shanghai due to Covid, the Fed may want to delay rate hikes. However, the downside on their lockdown may outweigh the upside of a rate hike delay on the market. I am still confident in the overall thesis as Spy still has a long way to go down. However, the timeline may differ as it will depend on how the new Covid wave is handled. Most likely it will either cause a quicker fall in the markets or delay the inevitable crash. Given that, it is better to buy further out and in the money options.