NASDAQ = 2.76x dot com bubble since 2002. Will it pop the same?

25 thg 11, 2020

I took some key data points from the dot com bubble and then scaled them to the start of the current bull market in 2009. The time scale is not the same, but a price scale of 2.76x aligns almost perfectly. The dot com bubble went a bit higher (so far as of 11/24/2020). When the dot com bubble corrected it went as low as the bottom of the regression channel. IF (big if) the NASDAQ were to follow the same pattern, then it would also hit the bottom of the regression channel (? icon).

I find the history of the market fascinating and now matter how much people think things are different, they really are not.

25 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

FYI, the numbers are arbitrary and do not actually represent Elliott waves. It just so happened that I had 6 points and the wave tool worked out nicely for drawing.

25 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

The wave count would look something like this.

25 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

Here is one possible option for how this thing completes its top via a H&S pattern.

25 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

Another option via ascending triangle reversal or a rising wedge.