Nifty - 12800 Critical Level - 10-12% move either side

Nifty has shrugg off covid blues and is back in its long term channel she has been following since Sept-18. 10-12% move in either direction is due now. I would incline to bearish movement because:

1 No news (positive/negative) expected
2. FTSE Rebalancing and effective pouring of FII money already factored into future data since Nov series beginning
3. RSI already at over bought levels
4. Two lover lows registered and the pull back today was just to trap retail investors - because the real rally from 30th October to 13th November never provided any chance for buying.
5. Two huge gaps remain to be filled

With all these points, if Nifty is able to break out of the channel at 12,800 it can make highs of 14,200 and then will have to retreat to the levels of 11,600 which would be a dreadful correction. Hence it's logical to expect Retracement to lover end of the channel now.

Just keep an eye on any TWO CLOSING ABOVE 12,800 for bullish view else initiate short.

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Today nifty opened at the high end of the covid lows channel and couldn't cross that or hold on to the purple line for closing.

This is the perfect set up for initiating short or put trades.