Case Study: Banking a +7 % Pop on OLLI’s VCP/ Ascending Triangle

Momentum in discount retail has been stealth-strong all quarter, so when Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) flashed a textbook volatility-contraction break I pulled the trigger. Below is the full play-by-play, numbers included, plus the process tweaks I’m carrying into the next trade.

1. The Setup

• Pattern: VCP-style ascending triangle under 121 resistance
• Context: Post-earnings drift sideways, volume drying up each contraction
• Catalysts: Strength across discounters (DG, WMT, DLTR) and bullish seasonality
• Risk: 1 % of account, stop pre-defined at 115

2. Execution

• 20 Jun – Stop-limit filled at 121.01 once intraday volume hit 2.6× ADV
• 24 Jun – Trimmed 3 sh at 129.13 (+6.7 %) to “feed the monster” and recycle BP
• 30 Jun – Trailing stop (ratcheted daily) closed remaining 7 sh at 129.94

3. Results

• Gross P&L: +86.89 USD, +7.18 % on position
• R-multiple: +1.45 R on initial risk
• Expectancy (TraderSync): +3.83 % — proof the process carries a positive edge

4. What Went Right

• Bought only after volume confirmed the breakout
• Stop never widened—only tightened
• Early partial locked in reward and removed emotional pressure

5. Improvement Plan

• Keep a 10 % “runner” until first close below 10-EMA or heavy distribution day
• Back-test a +25 % add on day-two follow-through (+2 % price, >1.5× volume)
• Simplify order flow by defaulting to single OCO brackets

OLLI