Finding PFE's bottom

According the CFRA's note, PFE estimates it has about $17B of revenues at risk between 2025 and 2030 due to looming loss of exclusivity. On the other hand, though, we think the pipeline is strong enough to offset these risks and thrive. PFE has 19 drugs in development (including 15 developed in-house) with potential for 20B in revenues by 2030. PFE may not be dependent on more M&A to replenish its portfolio after the Seagen acquisition. The 43B Seagen acquisition, once approved in the late 2023/early 2024 expected time frame, should have a strong contribution to oncology sales. Risks include fiercer competition for the Covid19 vaccine as new players enter the market, new surges of Covid-19 infections reducing hospital visits and new patient starts, unfavorable rulings by the FDA on Pfizer’s drug development candidates in its pipeline, and unexpected generic patent challenges.