QQQ Update with Scenarios

28 thg 4, 2023

Key resistance levels: 319.91, 321.15, 322.32
Key Support: 306.28
Critical pivot dates upcoming: 5/3/2023, 5/12/2023

Near-term QQQ is bearish under 322, a break above that could see brief upside to 328 (would then need to retest 322 for support before continuing - Dashed Blue Path). Based on that as most bullish case near-term a long play here is not motivating compared to the bearish cases below, which are more likely.

Solid Black Path: Most bearish case near-term - breakdown below 306.28 would confirm the current topping pattern and would likely see follow-through to 302.51 (initial target). After 302 we would see a test 314 and if rejected it would then send QQQ into 290s by end of May

Dashed Pink Path (Most likely): Test 306.28 for support by Friday May 12th. It could bounce there off the support trendline off Dec and Mar lows.

As I post this it is trying to breakdown the 319.91, which would spur a sell-off going into next week. We have seen distribution since early April as they have been exhausting demand.

11 thg 5, 2023

Ghi chú

Following the blue path which represented near-term upside risk. It is still bearish here. Expecting hard rejection in the 326-328 range.

Looking 6 weeks out my target is 279. Seems crazy maybe but that is the level we need to test for support before the markup to 350s begins later in 2023.

Here are the levels it needs to breakdown on the way to 279:
319
315
302

A break at those levels without significant bounce (i.e. over 0.618 retracement from previous peak) will take it to 279 by end of June.

Bounces at those levels will result in it carving out lower highs on the path to 279 and delay the time to target. But it will get that 279, and when it does that will be very bullish if it holds.