Giá xuống
Short China.. Ahead of Trade Deal .. Hype+Reality
Shanghai Index of Chinese Stocks SHCOMP has been the 'dog wagging the tail,"
as it's strong advance, from it's late 2018 lows has certainly provided the impetus
for the sharp rebound in the US stock market as well in 2019.
A possible trade agreement between the United States, and China,
later this month, with the potential lifting of economic sanctions
has certinly been discounted by the market, as the recent run up in the Shanghai clearly shows.
However, the risk here to my eyes is that the advance could be nearing a price peak, ahead, of any such agreement.
Note : Reletive Strength Index, now reaching the overbought 70 level, for the 2nd time on the Daily Chart,
while price is below the prior RSI peak at 70. That shows that the advance thus far in 2019,
has not reaching the prior price high, while reaching the same overbought level.
Simply put, the MOJO is nearing a top, and is ripe for a reversal.
I read this week, a revealing article by a noted observer of the Chinese economy,
who is suggesting that Chinese GDP forecasts of 6 % growth for 2019-2020,
are acutely high in his opinion, and that the real growth numbers may come in at something like 2 %.
If that forecast were to come to eventually come to pass, it would certainly lend additional creedence
that the Chinese market is ripe for a potential major selloff later in 2019.
There are ETF's available ,if one wants to Short the Chinese market,
and the one i am looking at closely to purchase is CHAD Direxion's Chinese Bear ETF
around 30, down from a recent high above 40.
Markets are discounting mechanisms.
Should the US and China reach a trade agreement,you've heard the adage "Buy the Rumour, Sell The News"
Perhaps even as the leaders are signing the potential agreement, markets will have begun dicounting it ahead.
The good news you see is already baked twice over into price, in both the Chinese, and US Markets.
Heaven forbid,.. if they don't come to any kind of agreement,.. at all.
SHCOMP Last 3102.09
THE_UNWIND
3/6/19
Mountains/New York
as it's strong advance, from it's late 2018 lows has certainly provided the impetus
for the sharp rebound in the US stock market as well in 2019.
A possible trade agreement between the United States, and China,
later this month, with the potential lifting of economic sanctions
has certinly been discounted by the market, as the recent run up in the Shanghai clearly shows.
However, the risk here to my eyes is that the advance could be nearing a price peak, ahead, of any such agreement.
Note : Reletive Strength Index, now reaching the overbought 70 level, for the 2nd time on the Daily Chart,
while price is below the prior RSI peak at 70. That shows that the advance thus far in 2019,
has not reaching the prior price high, while reaching the same overbought level.
Simply put, the MOJO is nearing a top, and is ripe for a reversal.
I read this week, a revealing article by a noted observer of the Chinese economy,
who is suggesting that Chinese GDP forecasts of 6 % growth for 2019-2020,
are acutely high in his opinion, and that the real growth numbers may come in at something like 2 %.
If that forecast were to come to eventually come to pass, it would certainly lend additional creedence
that the Chinese market is ripe for a potential major selloff later in 2019.
There are ETF's available ,if one wants to Short the Chinese market,
and the one i am looking at closely to purchase is CHAD Direxion's Chinese Bear ETF
around 30, down from a recent high above 40.
Markets are discounting mechanisms.
Should the US and China reach a trade agreement,you've heard the adage "Buy the Rumour, Sell The News"
Perhaps even as the leaders are signing the potential agreement, markets will have begun dicounting it ahead.
The good news you see is already baked twice over into price, in both the Chinese, and US Markets.
Heaven forbid,.. if they don't come to any kind of agreement,.. at all.
SHCOMP Last 3102.09
THE_UNWIND
3/6/19
Mountains/New York
Ghi chú
Footnote: I should also note I am considering
YANG Direxion's Triple Bear China ETF, in addition for purchase.
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Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.