SP500 super cycles: Yearly picture not in favor of crash
Here is an interesting analysis of the yearly picture on the SP500. Contrary to shorter timeframes, where the weekly and monthly show that we could have quite a stockmarket correction this year, the yearly picture looks much more bullish.
If we look at the past very long bullmarkets, we can see that there is a strong fractal similarity of the phase 2000-2008 and 1929 to 1945. It seems that this time, the recovery is faster, and the market wants to start the next long bullrun.
If it is similar to back then, we could see a very long bullrun until 2030, where we'd see a 2 year bearmarket interruption, then another 25+ year bullrun.
I know it sounds crazy, but this is just a fractal idea. There is of course not guarantee that it will play out like this.
Other similarities:
1.Widening bollinger band in yearly, like at the beginning of last bullruns.
2. Stoch RSI on overbought, could stay there until end of 2020s, if similar to last pattern.
If we look at the past very long bullmarkets, we can see that there is a strong fractal similarity of the phase 2000-2008 and 1929 to 1945. It seems that this time, the recovery is faster, and the market wants to start the next long bullrun.
If it is similar to back then, we could see a very long bullrun until 2030, where we'd see a 2 year bearmarket interruption, then another 25+ year bullrun.
I know it sounds crazy, but this is just a fractal idea. There is of course not guarantee that it will play out like this.
Other similarities:
1.Widening bollinger band in yearly, like at the beginning of last bullruns.
2. Stoch RSI on overbought, could stay there until end of 2020s, if similar to last pattern.
Bình luận:
That's what happens when everyone expects a crash XD
It doesn't come. Instead, we see new rallies and alltime highs.
I think my yearly picture will hold. It will just continue to rise until no one expects a crash any more. When really everyone thinks it impossible, THEN the crash will come :)
It doesn't come. Instead, we see new rallies and alltime highs.
I think my yearly picture will hold. It will just continue to rise until no one expects a crash any more. When really everyone thinks it impossible, THEN the crash will come :)
Bình luận:
And surprise, SP500 about to make new highs. That's what happens when everyone including their grandma are expecting a crash.
This will be an epic bullmarket.
This will be an epic bullmarket.
We can see in the yearly picture that we indeed could see a similar situation as in the lat 50s, that's where we would be now if this fractal megacycle idea holds true.
The current yearly candle looks very strong and absolutely not like a crash imho:
We'll see, much can happen in a year, but longterm-wise, the yearly picture looks extremely healthy until around 2030.