SPX Forecast up to Mid-Terms
Forecast based on:
- Mid-term seasonality (down in summer, spikes a few months before mid-term elections)
- Fed announcements that they will likely hike in July and September and 'we'll see' after that. Possible formation of a spring in September assuming Fed announces no further hikes
Likely catalysts:
- Inflation peaks and starts to fall
- US government has been teasing out end of trade war with China / reduction in trade tariffs since end of last year.
- End of Ukraine war is also another possible catalyst.
What happens after November? Melt-up to 6000? Double top? Let's worry about the next 3-4 months first.
- Mid-term seasonality (down in summer, spikes a few months before mid-term elections)
- Fed announcements that they will likely hike in July and September and 'we'll see' after that. Possible formation of a spring in September assuming Fed announces no further hikes
Likely catalysts:
- Inflation peaks and starts to fall
- US government has been teasing out end of trade war with China / reduction in trade tariffs since end of last year.
- End of Ukraine war is also another possible catalyst.
What happens after November? Melt-up to 6000? Double top? Let's worry about the next 3-4 months first.
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