SPX vs NDX vs RUT vs TSX - Analysis Order of Tops
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Dot Com Bubble (2000):
Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX
Duration: 182 days
Financial Crisis (2007-2008):
Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) / S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX
Duration: 366 days
2014-2015 Market Events:
Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> NASDAQ (NDX)
Duration: 426 days
2018 Market Events:
Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX)
Duration: 64 days
2021-2022 Market Events:
Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX) -> TSX
Duration: 273 days
Key Observations:
Order of Peaks: Historically, the Russell 2000 often peaks first, indicating early signs of market stress in smaller companies. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 typically follow closely, with the TSX sometimes lagging behind.
Market Tops: The vertical lines indicate the specific points in time when each market peaked, showing the staggered pattern of market tops.
Performance and Volatility: The NASDAQ shows the highest volatility and growth over the period, reflecting the tech sector's influence. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also show significant growth, while the TSX exhibits more stability with less volatility.
Conclusion:
This analysis provides a clear understanding of the timing and order of market peaks across different indices, highlighting the importance of monitoring smaller companies (RUT) for early signs of market tops and the sequential impact on larger indices (NDX, SPX) and the more stable TSX.
Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX
Duration: 182 days
Financial Crisis (2007-2008):
Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) / S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX
Duration: 366 days
2014-2015 Market Events:
Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> NASDAQ (NDX)
Duration: 426 days
2018 Market Events:
Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX)
Duration: 64 days
2021-2022 Market Events:
Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX) -> TSX
Duration: 273 days
Key Observations:
Order of Peaks: Historically, the Russell 2000 often peaks first, indicating early signs of market stress in smaller companies. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 typically follow closely, with the TSX sometimes lagging behind.
Market Tops: The vertical lines indicate the specific points in time when each market peaked, showing the staggered pattern of market tops.
Performance and Volatility: The NASDAQ shows the highest volatility and growth over the period, reflecting the tech sector's influence. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also show significant growth, while the TSX exhibits more stability with less volatility.
Conclusion:
This analysis provides a clear understanding of the timing and order of market peaks across different indices, highlighting the importance of monitoring smaller companies (RUT) for early signs of market tops and the sequential impact on larger indices (NDX, SPX) and the more stable TSX.
Ghi chú
Can you believe the TSX rose more than all other markets in the 2000's! That's crazy that Canada did better than the US for 7-8 years after the DOT COM crash!
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