Chỉ số S&P 500Giá xuống
Weekly analysis SPX
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Weekly analysis.
I’ll not comment on the fundamentals… because we know they aren’t great and the chaotic situation in HK might fuel more tensions.
So it seems to me the market is not fully rational at the moment and a lot of assumptions/bets are made on the vaccine potential and recovery speed. However the FactSet research shows that we have the highest P/E ratio since the dotcom bulled. So let’s take this situation as 100% technical as looking into the fundamentals when the market is based on emotions do not make so much sense.
Trends: We have broken the upward trends 3 times since the lows of March. Each time the following trend is less bullish. Not a healthy bullish sign.
Moving Averages:
We are ‘stuck’ below the 100 and 200 days Mas. No change last week. 100 MA seems to be acting as resistance
Fibonacci levels: 0.618 broke last week. To note: it has been an important level in the past. bullish
note that in the past 3020 was also a strong resistance.
Volume : lower and lower. Not a heathly sign
RSI: downtrend. We have encountered the trend line formed by the divergence of the last 2 peaks.
MACD: the crossover should the bullish… but it can often proves as a fake signal. The trend is more bearish
Rising wedges: usually signal a moves (more often a move downwards). Breaking to the downside one after the other.
Bollinger bands: very tight. Expecting big moves. We are back at the exact same with as feb 20:
Harmonic patterns: we are completing a bearish bat pattern. Need to see if breaks down.
Momentum : downtrend + divergence + back around feb 20th level
(both on the main chart)
I’ll not comment on the fundamentals… because we know they aren’t great and the chaotic situation in HK might fuel more tensions.
So it seems to me the market is not fully rational at the moment and a lot of assumptions/bets are made on the vaccine potential and recovery speed. However the FactSet research shows that we have the highest P/E ratio since the dotcom bulled. So let’s take this situation as 100% technical as looking into the fundamentals when the market is based on emotions do not make so much sense.
Trends: We have broken the upward trends 3 times since the lows of March. Each time the following trend is less bullish. Not a healthy bullish sign.
Moving Averages:
We are ‘stuck’ below the 100 and 200 days Mas. No change last week. 100 MA seems to be acting as resistance
Fibonacci levels: 0.618 broke last week. To note: it has been an important level in the past. bullish
note that in the past 3020 was also a strong resistance.
Volume : lower and lower. Not a heathly sign
RSI: downtrend. We have encountered the trend line formed by the divergence of the last 2 peaks.
MACD: the crossover should the bullish… but it can often proves as a fake signal. The trend is more bearish
Rising wedges: usually signal a moves (more often a move downwards). Breaking to the downside one after the other.
Bollinger bands: very tight. Expecting big moves. We are back at the exact same with as feb 20:
Harmonic patterns: we are completing a bearish bat pattern. Need to see if breaks down.
Momentum : downtrend + divergence + back around feb 20th level
(both on the main chart)
Ghi chú
Analysis from Sept 19 from IG UK on the Elliot waves.youtube.com/watch?v=ilTy7MgF1OA
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