James-Fisher
Giá lên

Interest rate hike? So what?

SP:SPX   Chỉ báo S&P 500
FED is crystal clear about its monetary policy for the rest of the year; there's a pretty good probability of a rate hike at the end of this year, but still at that point debt ceiling problem could loom out on the surface again if the government is not clear on theirs strategy. Tax reform is helping pushing US equity markets up - small businesses could gain most from this policy as you can see in Russell 2000, big boom. Because of these, I think US market is under very favorable conditions even if its valuation is really high and there are many political uncertainties; I think at this point Russell 2000 is a better option for a trading. Still, I'm analyzing SPX             because it's a better representation of the US equity market. I would just say US key economic data are performing better and so induce positive momentum in indices, but tight upside due to too many uncertainties both domestic and abroad. Now, let us look at the graph.

In a day time frame, SPX             still rides this uptrend wave as you can see in the Fisher transform . I drew an uptrend line in the FT             and it has yet break down below this line; so, it is very much still in an uptrend, but it has a very narrow upside because there is this resistance in the FT             around 3.19. So, if it hits that then there could be correction again and this time also a divergence which signaling a weaker momentum. Nonetheless, I recommend "Long" because there's a cross in the FT             of day time frame already and there's still a cosiderable distance of upside before this next resistance in the FT             .



In the week time frame, looks really good ... why? because the FT             has recently crossed up and seems like it did double bottom pattern. Also, price still ride in this uptrend line which suggests the same view I discussed in the day time frame. Nonetheless, as you can see, FT             week crossed up at a really high zone - personally, I hate when FT             crossed above zero because the signal is not as strong as the one crossed up below zero - thus limited upside. Basically, I think both day and week time frame are telling us the same thing; it still gonna go - even the price suggested so - but limited upside. I think the best target price is when day FT             starts hitting that resistance I drew.

Bình luận: Still holding S&P500 regardless of tax reform and debt ceiling and Trump.
Bình luận: Tax reform and pushed shut down deadline are what we need to staying long in US market even with stretched valuation.
Bình luận: A bomb in NY give us a discount in buying more positions in SPX. My condolences to New Yorker.
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