Time to test next theory
Cập nhật
NOTE: All times are eastern time zone
IF we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3, it is currently projected to last 154 to 174 hours with strongest model agreement at 168 hours. Historically, Minor wave 1s inside of Intermediate wave 3s move between 17.7%-34.14% of the larger wave’s movement. For example, if Intermediate wave 3 moves 168 hours, Minor wave 1 should last at least 17.7% of that duration which is 29.74 hours which rounds to 30 hours. 30 hours from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 on August 24 places the estimated bottom for Minor wave 1 on or after 1130 on August 30. The higher end of the range would place the bottom before 34.14% of 168 hours (57.36 hours, rounded to 57) which is 1030 on September 6.
Similar historical data is applied to attempt in finding the bottom of Minor wave 1. Intermediate wave 3 is projected to end between 4120-4200. Minor wave 1 tends to account for 34.1%-56.62% of the larger wave’s movement. If the bottom is closer to 4160, Intermediate wave 3 would drop a total of 298.30 points and Minor wave 1 would likely end between 4289.39-4356.59.
THINGS TO WATCH NEXT:
Main hypothesis: These estimates have created a possible target box to determine the end of Minor wave 1. If this box is accurate, the bottom early today could be the end of Minute wave 1 and the upward movement afterward could be Minute wave 2. This would obliviously indicate next week goes lower than today’s low. If Minute wave 1 ended today, historical data should put the end of Minute wave 2 in the following area. Most specific models have quartile retracements at 31.22%, 45.73% and 78.52%. with strongest duration at 3 hours and secondary duration at 4 hours. Next dataset places quartile movement retracements at 26.14%, 40.25%, and 60.26%. Duration forecasts point to 4 hours, with secondary agreement at 1 or 8 hours, and third at 2 hours. The broader dataset points to quartiles of 28.18%, 44.4%, and 69.26%. Duration is strongest at 8 hours with secondary at 2 hours, third at 4 hours, fourth at 1 hour, and fifth at 3 hours. Current stats for this possible Minute wave 2 have it at 4 hours long as of 1510 on August 25th. The high so far is above the 60.26% retracement level. If this is Minute wave 2, it is likely near the end.
Hypothesis 2: It is also possible Minor wave 1 ended with the low today. Next week would still have red, but the end of Intermediate wave 3 is likely much sooner than the end of September.
Hypothesis 3: It is also possible the historical data is wrong and the end points for Minor wave 1 are someone completely different.
Additional possibilities place the market outside of Intermediate wave 3 altogether.
Hypothesis 4: The market could still be working through Intermediate wave 2 which would mean a new high above 4458.30 occurs next week.
Hypothesis 5: The market could also be in a completely different place than Intermediate waves 2 or 3 causing unknown future gyration.
Watching the next 2-3 trading days should rule out some theories.
IF we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3, it is currently projected to last 154 to 174 hours with strongest model agreement at 168 hours. Historically, Minor wave 1s inside of Intermediate wave 3s move between 17.7%-34.14% of the larger wave’s movement. For example, if Intermediate wave 3 moves 168 hours, Minor wave 1 should last at least 17.7% of that duration which is 29.74 hours which rounds to 30 hours. 30 hours from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 on August 24 places the estimated bottom for Minor wave 1 on or after 1130 on August 30. The higher end of the range would place the bottom before 34.14% of 168 hours (57.36 hours, rounded to 57) which is 1030 on September 6.
Similar historical data is applied to attempt in finding the bottom of Minor wave 1. Intermediate wave 3 is projected to end between 4120-4200. Minor wave 1 tends to account for 34.1%-56.62% of the larger wave’s movement. If the bottom is closer to 4160, Intermediate wave 3 would drop a total of 298.30 points and Minor wave 1 would likely end between 4289.39-4356.59.
THINGS TO WATCH NEXT:
Main hypothesis: These estimates have created a possible target box to determine the end of Minor wave 1. If this box is accurate, the bottom early today could be the end of Minute wave 1 and the upward movement afterward could be Minute wave 2. This would obliviously indicate next week goes lower than today’s low. If Minute wave 1 ended today, historical data should put the end of Minute wave 2 in the following area. Most specific models have quartile retracements at 31.22%, 45.73% and 78.52%. with strongest duration at 3 hours and secondary duration at 4 hours. Next dataset places quartile movement retracements at 26.14%, 40.25%, and 60.26%. Duration forecasts point to 4 hours, with secondary agreement at 1 or 8 hours, and third at 2 hours. The broader dataset points to quartiles of 28.18%, 44.4%, and 69.26%. Duration is strongest at 8 hours with secondary at 2 hours, third at 4 hours, fourth at 1 hour, and fifth at 3 hours. Current stats for this possible Minute wave 2 have it at 4 hours long as of 1510 on August 25th. The high so far is above the 60.26% retracement level. If this is Minute wave 2, it is likely near the end.
Hypothesis 2: It is also possible Minor wave 1 ended with the low today. Next week would still have red, but the end of Intermediate wave 3 is likely much sooner than the end of September.
Hypothesis 3: It is also possible the historical data is wrong and the end points for Minor wave 1 are someone completely different.
Additional possibilities place the market outside of Intermediate wave 3 altogether.
Hypothesis 4: The market could still be working through Intermediate wave 2 which would mean a new high above 4458.30 occurs next week.
Hypothesis 5: The market could also be in a completely different place than Intermediate waves 2 or 3 causing unknown future gyration.
Watching the next 2-3 trading days should rule out some theories.
Ghi chú
A couple theories busted, right now the end of Intermediate wave 2 looks plausible. 2A was the high on August 24, 2B down was low on August 25. In 2C now. As of 1240 eastern on August 29, looks like in wave 3. Of note from prior Intermediate wave 2 analysis was the target duration of 56 hours which could place next turnaround oint at tomorrow's open. Still need a wave 4 pullback and final wave 5 up to close out Intermediate wave 2. Not much higher to go. Next levels above 4485 are 4521 for potential topGhi chú
Having not entered Intermediate wave 3 yet, the bottom is likely pushed into the first-second week of October. This means a lot more red in September. Plenty of analysis to follow. Market should wrap Intermediate wave 2 on August 31st with the top between 4527-4549
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
Bài đăng liên quan
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.