Transitioning to Risk-OFF Inflationary Environment

4 thg 12, 2016

We are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and risk-OFF environment, it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that GOLD could do quite well. US treasury bonds should outperform HYG and EMB. Oil is the wild card. Higher or even flat oil prices will be much higher than they were last year. The YoY inflation effects if OPEC can stabilize the oil market above $50 for the next two months would really feed into inflation. Higher inflation would hurt the US consumer and business margins applying further downward pressure on risk assets. But I am getting ahead of myself. The risk-ON rally is likely over, and it's time to expect a risk-OFF rising inflation environment.