Elliott Wave: January 2020 - Path to Election Day and YE 2020
Happy New Year!
This month's chart builds on the path shown in each prior month's chart and reflects upward momentum from 2019. We're navigating through Wave 5 of higher degree following the significant bottom reached in March 2009. December 2018's low ended Wave 4 within the path since 2009.
At present we're in lower degree wave 3 (within Wave 5) as witnessed by new highs and very shallow corrections. Expectation is for that to continue as the largest wave without major interruption until summer 2020. Note I said "major" as there will certainly be dips along the way, but with expected declines of less than 10% until the second half of 2020. Magnitude of smaller declines will be 3-5%.
Before reaching this time next year, and the approach of Wave 5's end, a lower degree wave 4 is likely, with that decline being in "correction" territory of 10%. Not sure what the catalyst will be, but possibly an election scare, perhaps mid-year to around the time of either party's Presidential convention.
For targets, Fibonacci levels point to 3850-3900 for year end. Reasonable targets for lower degree ending wave 3 and 4 are 3600, then 3250, before reaching Election day or year end at 3900.
For now this plan is in place for 2020 and monthly updates will include progress or adjustments as we move ahead.
Best wishes for a Prosperous and Healthy 2020!
This month's chart builds on the path shown in each prior month's chart and reflects upward momentum from 2019. We're navigating through Wave 5 of higher degree following the significant bottom reached in March 2009. December 2018's low ended Wave 4 within the path since 2009.
At present we're in lower degree wave 3 (within Wave 5) as witnessed by new highs and very shallow corrections. Expectation is for that to continue as the largest wave without major interruption until summer 2020. Note I said "major" as there will certainly be dips along the way, but with expected declines of less than 10% until the second half of 2020. Magnitude of smaller declines will be 3-5%.
Before reaching this time next year, and the approach of Wave 5's end, a lower degree wave 4 is likely, with that decline being in "correction" territory of 10%. Not sure what the catalyst will be, but possibly an election scare, perhaps mid-year to around the time of either party's Presidential convention.
For targets, Fibonacci levels point to 3850-3900 for year end. Reasonable targets for lower degree ending wave 3 and 4 are 3600, then 3250, before reaching Election day or year end at 3900.
For now this plan is in place for 2020 and monthly updates will include progress or adjustments as we move ahead.
Best wishes for a Prosperous and Healthy 2020!