Hey guys. My analysis on why VIX had to go green today. Normally, SPX has been trading in a steady trend, not upsetting the VIX and keeping VIX in a steady downtrend, while SPX stays green and VIX stays red. But on the daily VIX timeframe, you can see the gap that needs to be filled under $22.00 - and it will, soon.
The next daily candle on VIX, if red, would have entered that last low $22.00 candle. This will take us back up to SPX ATH's and potentially double top and end this market rally for good. They don't want this to happen quite yet, so to not allow VIX to enter that $22.00 candle they NEED to create volatility - to the downside. I believe we will see a series of red SPX days to push VIX back into green territory and away from that $22.00 candle low, as that gap will signal the end of this bull run. They don't want that yet. Imo, anything under the $18.00 VIX can and will be the end of this bull market, at any time. Ideally, they'll drop the hammer at VIX $12 level, but that will ONLY mean new SPX ATH's of 3600-4000+, but stay with me here.
VIX was at $16.00 - $17.00 levels when they decided to end the last bull run. If they take VIX back to $12.00 - $13.00 level we will need to see VIX drop by roughly 24%. If I take VIX $17.00 x 24% (.24), I get $4.08. $17.00 - $4.08 = $12.92 VIX (Roughly where I think the top could be).
So taking that VIX price % (24%) and relating it to the ATH of SPX (3390), 3390 x 1.24 = a rough maximum of SPX 4203, or SPY $420.
I see this maximum bull market lasting until no longer than the first or second week of August, maximum.
-MoneyProphet on Twitter
The next daily candle on VIX, if red, would have entered that last low $22.00 candle. This will take us back up to SPX ATH's and potentially double top and end this market rally for good. They don't want this to happen quite yet, so to not allow VIX to enter that $22.00 candle they NEED to create volatility - to the downside. I believe we will see a series of red SPX days to push VIX back into green territory and away from that $22.00 candle low, as that gap will signal the end of this bull run. They don't want that yet. Imo, anything under the $18.00 VIX can and will be the end of this bull market, at any time. Ideally, they'll drop the hammer at VIX $12 level, but that will ONLY mean new SPX ATH's of 3600-4000+, but stay with me here.
VIX was at $16.00 - $17.00 levels when they decided to end the last bull run. If they take VIX back to $12.00 - $13.00 level we will need to see VIX drop by roughly 24%. If I take VIX $17.00 x 24% (.24), I get $4.08. $17.00 - $4.08 = $12.92 VIX (Roughly where I think the top could be).
So taking that VIX price % (24%) and relating it to the ATH of SPX (3390), 3390 x 1.24 = a rough maximum of SPX 4203, or SPY $420.
I see this maximum bull market lasting until no longer than the first or second week of August, maximum.
-MoneyProphet on Twitter
