Failed Follow Through Days and 2022

The the S&P 500 bear market statistics for the past 50+ years show that the average number of Failed Follow Through Days (FTDs) is 5. However, in the stagflation market of 1973-74, characterised by rising inflation and declining economic growth, there were a shocking 9 failed FTDs! If we exclude the two short bear markets of 1982 (only 53 days) and 2020 (V shape), then the average Failed FTDs is just a bit over 6. This might indicatate a historical precedent case for a stronger rally here

Note, a distribution day, within the first five trading sessions after the market has a FTD, has led to a failure of the FTD 70% of the time. Also note, undercutting the rally day from the FTD implies a 95% failure rate