Mid Term Bullish looking at larger degree structure

3 thg 12, 2023

The drop over the past few months was corrective with the purpose of retesting the breakout level of 4130 back in May/June. It found support there and is now making its way to retest all time high of 4800.

- Most bullish near term scenario is it continues directly higher to 4670-4760 (point target 4721.27) by 12/15/2023 (solid green trajectory)

- Alternate scenario is we get a near term pullback first to 4400 and then it continues to 4700s by March 2024 latest (solid black trajectory)

The 4700 is just an initial target, it can continue to 5000 if it hits 4700s and pulls back to form higher low.

3 thg 12, 2023

Ghi chú

There are a few factors I'm watching to determine which of the 2 scenarios we will take, I'll send updates accordingly. If I have evidence of the black path I'll be looking to buy near term puts on a pullback before swinging long. If price continues to trade at or above the green path then I'll be waiting to enter puts.

Another strategy is buy Mar 2024 calls and stomach the volatility on the way up. There is a very high probability we won't top until 5000, but obviously we won't go directly there, it will get pretty volatile real soon.

13 thg 12, 2023

Ghi chú

If you load new bars you'll see this traded along the green path exactly

13 thg 12, 2023

Ghi chú

Be wary if you're long here, this can see a sharp pullback to at least the 4500 region from here over the course of the next few days to week.

Once these parabolic targets are hit there is a tendency for rapid sell off.

20 thg 12, 2023

Ghi chú

Will continue higher as long as it stays above the blue line.

22 thg 12, 2023

Ghi chú

Next point target is 4875 by 1/17/2024. See my latest post on Nasdaq for expected price action to get there - will trade in a similar fasion to S&P

28 thg 12, 2023

Ghi chú

Big green tomorrow 12/28

17 thg 1

Ghi chú

Expecting pullback to around 4600 by 1/30/2024, and then begin rally to 4900-5100 (point target 4967) by end of Feb. 2024.

Buy the dip if we get into 4600s, we're in a re-accumulation phase.

24 thg 1

Ghi chú

Broke out of re-accumulation 1/23 - this still has legs:

Point target = 4967.10 on 1/26-1/29 (mars/mercury conjunction, 263.1 deg)

- will run going into FOMC 1/31 and then get pullback to upper 4800s before continuing to 5000+ by end of Feb 2024.

28 thg 1

Ghi chú

Check out my latest post on SPY for a near-term market forecast. SPX will trade similarly in line with my previous comment.

4 thg 2

Ghi chú

Expecting this to hit 5000 by 2/14/2024 (maybe as early as this Friday 2/9).

13 thg 2

Ghi chú

I think it can run to at least 5166