S&P 500 Black Swan 2020 crash: The Big Short 3.0

26 thg 10, 2020

My last post about the S&P 500 imminent crash (3600-2200) was deleted by Trading View because I had a reference to my Twitter account (where I spend most of my time).

Anywho, sharing a variation of price movement that I think will play out. Either way, all my SPX charts suggest a much lower market in the months ahead.

Bears have capitulated and I'm seeing people say we are in a "New Bull Market" after a +10-year expansion. Some suggest SPX can hit 4000 before any pullback. I monitor price action, if it suggests it, I go with it, not before. Right now it looks like the market topped in September or is very close to in Q4 2020.

I have a high conviction that we break March lows in the next couple of months to 1 year. Remember, we were in a recession before the pandemic.

For long-term investors with a long time horizon, the next 2-3 years will represent the best time to accumulate for big gains over the next decade (always keep that in mind).

For traders, we have a Big Short situation unfolding. Timing is important.

SPX Levels: 3400 is the 50-day-MA, if broken, I will be heavy in UVXY Calls / SPY Puts.

I will remain bullish until that level breaks. If we never break it and head higher, guess what? I'm long, so should you. Traders are nimble.

I care not about predictions. I only care about being on the right side of the trade.

Cheers

26 thg 10, 2020

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If a top is in, the plunge starting today has to be faster/steeper than any drop the past 2 months (i.e. 3200 in like 5 trading days).

We prepared for this.

Keep in mind:

-Stimulus bill not likely before election
-COVID cases are surging around the world
-Bankruptcies/debt defaults are surging

Most of the analysts on Wall Street are thinking we are going higher. Don't be fooled. Listen to price action.

I share more updates on Twitter (I don't really like Trading View for this).

27 thg 10, 2020

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Just a note: I work for a 66B multi-family office. I work with the Director of Research. I look at every deal. We look at public and private markets (venture capital, private equity, distressed real estate, etc.).

I mention this because I get to speak with the managers that move markets. I see what's going on underneath the hood. Things most have no idea about. I'm lucky, but it's a testament to who I am. I'm only here to help share what I know with hopes that you take care of yourself/your family/the world (I mean that).

Chart Update: Not sure why I can't post an updated chart here, lot has changed since I was active here.

SPX: closing below 3400 was ominous. We should see an acceleration lower from here. My updated chart is on my Twitter page. We may not see the ATH again in 2020. Either way, you should be in cash or short this market (sell into rallies).

For long-term buys, wait for cheaper prices. They are coming.

Cheers

28 thg 10, 2020

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My Twitter link is in my bio (it's also my username). Most of my updates will be there.

Welcome to the "Big Short 3.0"

Hopefully, you are learning more than you made so far.

My hope is to teach people how to fish (to make consistent gains for years to come).

2 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

Here's what I posted on my Twitter:

SPX: Price is following in lockstep to my predicted path.

I sold UPRO calls this morning. Sitting overweight with cash and long UVXY.

I don't care about political outcomes. Everyone is overcomplicating this market.

The "real" data is clear. We are in a recession.

#BigShort

(note the chart above was changed weeks ago), the overall path is the same. No one can predict what we will see this week.

Good luck gang.