SPX - the bottom is not in, resistance 4483 area (with notes)

It's been a struggle to count this correction in abc's as it does not subdivide very well. I've noticed many Ellioticians forcing counts as well. While it is completely possible for the bottom to be in, this last leg does not count well with a subdivided C leg.

Even if this count is wrong, it is wise to respect the resistance that will play around the 4483 area and to be on alert to secure profits if long.

Many analysts are trying to count the move off the lows impulsive but if it continues to extend to 4483 w3 and w5 would both be extended, which is an extremely rare scenerio that does not play out often and it counts better as a countertrend move.

It sounds strange, but the bullish scenerio requires us to open immediately lower in a 3-wave correction as an a-b-c, and if we immediately extend to the upside targeting 4483 and reject, i will be attempting a short with a stop at 4527.

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with sunday open opening lower i am looking at two scenerios,
1) a retrace to 4160-4215 before the move up to 4484 for (X)
2) a direct path to 3996-4025

1 is the most likely scenerio currently

Bình luận:

sunday gapdown looked like a corrective start of a micro abc/wxy, currently don't have any clarity over the micro structure, this count is still valid for the time being

Bình luận:

as of 3/15 we have a clear impulse off the low, which implies the bottom is now in and we should expect a strong rally to the upside as long as the low holds.. this count is now an alternate and no longer a primary