mrstockyetoro

Higher Low? 7th November 2022

Giá lên
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈

➤ Welcome to another week of snakes and ladders. Before we look at the technicals, I urge you to read my thought piece about The Paradigm Shift if you haven't done so. IMHO, this will alter the behaviour of markets going forward. A much more active approach rather than a passive buy and hold approach is required.

➤ Let's now look at the charts. Once more the price in the S&P500 is back in the chop with resistance and support levels acting has hurdles. For the Bullish case, we could possibly pencil in the higher low I have been writing about. Price retraced 50% of the up move from the yearly low. This is a common place where prices tend to rebound higher. Price needs to overcome 379 in the short-term to make certain of this.

➤ The biggest conundrum right now is the weakness in tech or NASDAQ. This is very rare during a bullish phase. In fact, with a cursory glance all the way back to year 2000, I cannot see such a huge discrepancy between the performance of NASDAQ as compared to the DJIA, a portfolio of blue chip stocks. In every instance, the NASDAQ has matched or bettered on a Bullish move whether in year 2000 or 2008. I'm interested to investigate this further as to the cause. Is it high inflation and fast rising interest rates the culprit? I welcome your insights!

➤ VIX has entered an interesting area where Bears have come to the fore. Despite that, I cut my small short in NASDAQ and reversed to buy. A small short position in Russell 2000 remains. I'm long other indices. Portfolio sits at +60% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: Chop means fingers closely placed near the exit button.

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Not Investment Advice
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