V Shaped Recovery on SPY?
Broke bearish trends across the board, and this dip would've been a dope ass dip to buy. Leaps are up over 20%, each day all the stocks on my tech and meme watch list went up on average 10%. The Stimmy is passed too. SPY $420 4/16 is no longer a meme. Yet, the US10Y rebounded off support. Is tech Fuk?
But, somethings are worrying me. If you zoom the fuck out of the SPY chart and look at the dips in June and September/October, yes each time they broke to new highs, BUT ONLY AFTER DOUBLE DIPPING. With a slightly higher low ofc.
However, past performance is not indicative of future performance.
I saw a post somewhere, but someone lined up the dips with the stimulus talks. So are we looking at a double bottom. Is this just a really fat fucking bull trap?
We are definitely in overbought territory, but we can stay in this range for quite some time, especially with lower than expected inflation numbers and a stale yield auction. People are FOMOing back into tech.
What I do like tho, is that the MACD just had a cross over and the TTM histogram looks like it can grow a little more. 4HR RSI is still around 60, and 70 would be a decent top. If we look a little back to late January, we are seeing similarities after a dip.
On the smaller time frames, SPY has been making a pattern of fading into close and then gapping up the next day. So, naturally, I got 8x 395c 3/12. A little over 5% of my portfolio but I'll allow it.
If you scrolled straight to the bottom, here are my takeaways:
1. SPY looks like it's gonna break $400 and the next resistance levels will be around $404-$405. There is no telling when this could happen. Could be next week or next month. If this is the double-dip that I mentioned way above, and SPY breaks $395, I'd start going fucking long everything.
2. What if this dip isn't part of the end of January correction? This would be a nasty double top then. That means we could experience another sell-off to a slightly higher low on the most recent bottom. I would then start buying the fuck out of that dip like no tomorrow. A similar double top would be matched by a double bottom.
3. That being said, I think we are in a completely different trend since the November elections and the whole GME dealio. Every day is no man's land. Have fun investing and trading accordingly. I'm bullish because SPY didn't drop below $370.
But, somethings are worrying me. If you zoom the fuck out of the SPY chart and look at the dips in June and September/October, yes each time they broke to new highs, BUT ONLY AFTER DOUBLE DIPPING. With a slightly higher low ofc.
However, past performance is not indicative of future performance.
I saw a post somewhere, but someone lined up the dips with the stimulus talks. So are we looking at a double bottom. Is this just a really fat fucking bull trap?
We are definitely in overbought territory, but we can stay in this range for quite some time, especially with lower than expected inflation numbers and a stale yield auction. People are FOMOing back into tech.
What I do like tho, is that the MACD just had a cross over and the TTM histogram looks like it can grow a little more. 4HR RSI is still around 60, and 70 would be a decent top. If we look a little back to late January, we are seeing similarities after a dip.
On the smaller time frames, SPY has been making a pattern of fading into close and then gapping up the next day. So, naturally, I got 8x 395c 3/12. A little over 5% of my portfolio but I'll allow it.
If you scrolled straight to the bottom, here are my takeaways:
1. SPY looks like it's gonna break $400 and the next resistance levels will be around $404-$405. There is no telling when this could happen. Could be next week or next month. If this is the double-dip that I mentioned way above, and SPY breaks $395, I'd start going fucking long everything.
2. What if this dip isn't part of the end of January correction? This would be a nasty double top then. That means we could experience another sell-off to a slightly higher low on the most recent bottom. I would then start buying the fuck out of that dip like no tomorrow. A similar double top would be matched by a double bottom.
3. That being said, I think we are in a completely different trend since the November elections and the whole GME dealio. Every day is no man's land. Have fun investing and trading accordingly. I'm bullish because SPY didn't drop below $370.
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