Hey everyone,
So what an awful week so far. Really.
Going to get right into it:
Probs on the weekly had 409 as the high prob target. I think I/the math was wrong here. Its not going to get hit.
The overall thesis in the projections are overall proving correct (holding the 2nd low monthly target as support and bouncing from there), but I just don't foresee 409 happening by EOW (which is tomorrow).
So, sorry about that, the math, and by extension myself were wrong.
That said, because of this I exited my long positions today. I am not loving the PA and not loving the heaviness that is omnipresent. Not the profits I wanted but still nothing to complain about.
Where to next?
So this is what I am watching (ES1! chart):
ES and SPY were in a downtrend channel. Today, ES & SPY broke out of it and did gain that bullish momentum.
Where to next:
Probabilities (and modified probability experiment I did, more on that later below) are actually still showing some indecision in terms of the PA. Expecting both bearishness and bullishness. Slight favouring of the downside.
However! ES1! just opened on a massive gap and completely destroyed my prob targets (in that it hit all of them!).
My targets I wanted to play to were:
1. 3972
2. 3991
3. 4010 (not a target I was going to play to, but it was the third target the prob model gave).
SO there is that.
But the 99% target (Revised to actual work this time!) is 3991.
So we will, at the very least, see pullback to 3991.
I am also expecting a pullback on ES to at least 3973 based on the probs and just the PA in general.
What about SPY?
Great question, tomorrow Python thinks its bullish. Our TPs are underwhelming though:
1. 397.15
2. 398.59
3. 400.03
and bear:
1. 396.03
2. 394.31
3. 392.59
We could re-test the breakout on ES but that has become extremely unlikely based on where ES has opened at.
We do have a catalyst tomorrow. I am not sure if its much of a market mover. But be cautious because the PA right now is worrying in general. This type of bullish momentum can go 1 of two ways, aggressive pullback and tankage or continuation into the morning after some slight overnight pullback. So play this cautiously in ANY direction. It may be leading up to a massive dump if the market decides to suddenly care about the news release at 8:30.
Probability does support at least some selling so again, be cautious.
My personal plan was above, to play to 3991 and use ES as my reference point for SPY tomorrow, with my first watch area being 3957 bear target and my end goal being 4010.58 if the momentum held up, but immediate goal was 3991.57 which has been completely taken out already.
WIll play it as I see it now. But those were the levels I was watching.
On SPY my bearish reference point was around 394, holding that is key, otherwise we have made no progress in a bull trend because a move to 392 math support (monthly range) would just show massive indecision and weakness. A break of 394 and I would be looking to re-test the monthly low math support at 392.
That's it! this was more of a post for my fellow day traders!
Time Series
Forgot to add!
I have done the time series mode and mostly finished likelihood calcs.
Will post about it per everyone's request!
I won't get into it here, but just know as of right now, we could theoretically see a high of 421 in the coming weeks.
Will we get there? I don't know, every time I speculate without running calculations I am dreadfully wrong, so the hell if I know!
But just wanted to let you know that, that target is chillin there. Hi how are ya.
But of course, there are equally dramatic low options too. I only draw attention to 421 because I Found interesting. But I am not saying that we will see it. I personally don't think so.
Pro Tip for Day Traders
0 Dtes, am I right? LOL! I love them and hate them. And SPY having them every day has been both a godsend and a burden. I took my first stop out this week on SPY because of a 0 dte. The position was correct, and I knew it was correct, but my timing was off and it came to either accept the immediate loss or just suffer the awful premium decay in pullback. So, unless you are buying into some massively high volume breakout, stick to at least the 1 DTEs if you are day trading this :-). Just my advice.
Personal anecdote:
So, if you have followed me for a while, you know I am a math based trader and that my strategy is not a public or practiced strategy as far as I am aware of. So I am always changing things and adapting things and trying new things a long the way. I am of course not always correct, but when I am incorrect I immediately take it as a failure on my part and try to improve things and make things better.
There is no rule book for my strategy. Its simply me applying my graduate studies to the stock market. In a previous life I was tracking and modelling HIV and Hep A and B across Canada and now, in this life, I am tracking and modelling stocks in the exact same manner. So, I apologize in advance when I am wrong. I was very wrong on my TSLA post, disaster that stock is, and I know, against my advice, people tend to follow me and take my word on things but please don't. I am not a finance analyst, a business person or anything. There is no rule book for my strategy. I am not applying someone else's theory (I mean, that's a lie, I am technically applying the work of Thomas Bayes and John Graunt and many others). Its all my own invention and thus its even more risky than following someone applying something already established.
Also, no one has gotten mad at me or angry at me or anything. Everyone who reads and comments are all super supportive! I just felt like putting that out there because this week has been trying, it's been very trying. But I mean this whole year has been trying to be honest.
That said, I have revised my probability stuff a bit after this week. Its very experimental and its theoretical (I mean all of this is theoretical). I can update on the details of that later, its quite clever, but right now gotta manage this ES position so trade safe everyone!
Safe trades everyone!
So what an awful week so far. Really.
Going to get right into it:
Probs on the weekly had 409 as the high prob target. I think I/the math was wrong here. Its not going to get hit.
The overall thesis in the projections are overall proving correct (holding the 2nd low monthly target as support and bouncing from there), but I just don't foresee 409 happening by EOW (which is tomorrow).
So, sorry about that, the math, and by extension myself were wrong.
That said, because of this I exited my long positions today. I am not loving the PA and not loving the heaviness that is omnipresent. Not the profits I wanted but still nothing to complain about.
Where to next?
So this is what I am watching (ES1! chart):
ES and SPY were in a downtrend channel. Today, ES & SPY broke out of it and did gain that bullish momentum.
Where to next:
Probabilities (and modified probability experiment I did, more on that later below) are actually still showing some indecision in terms of the PA. Expecting both bearishness and bullishness. Slight favouring of the downside.
However! ES1! just opened on a massive gap and completely destroyed my prob targets (in that it hit all of them!).
My targets I wanted to play to were:
1. 3972
2. 3991
3. 4010 (not a target I was going to play to, but it was the third target the prob model gave).
SO there is that.
But the 99% target (Revised to actual work this time!) is 3991.
So we will, at the very least, see pullback to 3991.
I am also expecting a pullback on ES to at least 3973 based on the probs and just the PA in general.
What about SPY?
Great question, tomorrow Python thinks its bullish. Our TPs are underwhelming though:
1. 397.15
2. 398.59
3. 400.03
and bear:
1. 396.03
2. 394.31
3. 392.59
We could re-test the breakout on ES but that has become extremely unlikely based on where ES has opened at.
We do have a catalyst tomorrow. I am not sure if its much of a market mover. But be cautious because the PA right now is worrying in general. This type of bullish momentum can go 1 of two ways, aggressive pullback and tankage or continuation into the morning after some slight overnight pullback. So play this cautiously in ANY direction. It may be leading up to a massive dump if the market decides to suddenly care about the news release at 8:30.
Probability does support at least some selling so again, be cautious.
My personal plan was above, to play to 3991 and use ES as my reference point for SPY tomorrow, with my first watch area being 3957 bear target and my end goal being 4010.58 if the momentum held up, but immediate goal was 3991.57 which has been completely taken out already.
WIll play it as I see it now. But those were the levels I was watching.
On SPY my bearish reference point was around 394, holding that is key, otherwise we have made no progress in a bull trend because a move to 392 math support (monthly range) would just show massive indecision and weakness. A break of 394 and I would be looking to re-test the monthly low math support at 392.
That's it! this was more of a post for my fellow day traders!
Time Series
Forgot to add!
I have done the time series mode and mostly finished likelihood calcs.
Will post about it per everyone's request!
I won't get into it here, but just know as of right now, we could theoretically see a high of 421 in the coming weeks.
Will we get there? I don't know, every time I speculate without running calculations I am dreadfully wrong, so the hell if I know!
But just wanted to let you know that, that target is chillin there. Hi how are ya.
But of course, there are equally dramatic low options too. I only draw attention to 421 because I Found interesting. But I am not saying that we will see it. I personally don't think so.
Pro Tip for Day Traders
0 Dtes, am I right? LOL! I love them and hate them. And SPY having them every day has been both a godsend and a burden. I took my first stop out this week on SPY because of a 0 dte. The position was correct, and I knew it was correct, but my timing was off and it came to either accept the immediate loss or just suffer the awful premium decay in pullback. So, unless you are buying into some massively high volume breakout, stick to at least the 1 DTEs if you are day trading this :-). Just my advice.
Personal anecdote:
So, if you have followed me for a while, you know I am a math based trader and that my strategy is not a public or practiced strategy as far as I am aware of. So I am always changing things and adapting things and trying new things a long the way. I am of course not always correct, but when I am incorrect I immediately take it as a failure on my part and try to improve things and make things better.
There is no rule book for my strategy. Its simply me applying my graduate studies to the stock market. In a previous life I was tracking and modelling HIV and Hep A and B across Canada and now, in this life, I am tracking and modelling stocks in the exact same manner. So, I apologize in advance when I am wrong. I was very wrong on my TSLA post, disaster that stock is, and I know, against my advice, people tend to follow me and take my word on things but please don't. I am not a finance analyst, a business person or anything. There is no rule book for my strategy. I am not applying someone else's theory (I mean, that's a lie, I am technically applying the work of Thomas Bayes and John Graunt and many others). Its all my own invention and thus its even more risky than following someone applying something already established.
Also, no one has gotten mad at me or angry at me or anything. Everyone who reads and comments are all super supportive! I just felt like putting that out there because this week has been trying, it's been very trying. But I mean this whole year has been trying to be honest.
That said, I have revised my probability stuff a bit after this week. Its very experimental and its theoretical (I mean all of this is theoretical). I can update on the details of that later, its quite clever, but right now gotta manage this ES position so trade safe everyone!
Safe trades everyone!
Bình luận:
If you're using TV to trade or chart, here are the real time levels adjusted for the rollover:
Premium indicators and content have launched! Get access at: www.patreon.com/steversteves
I will share the revised TPs based on the probability model (which does not use pinescript and is powered by SAS):
Bear:
1. 3957
2. 3933
3. 3910
Bull:
1. 3972
2. 3991
3. 4010
Based on that, I would be looking for 3957 as the first TP using alternative data (not the TVs adjusted for switch).