TLT Short-Term Short Setup

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Overview:

TLT has likely completed Wave (3) in its Elliott Wave structure and is now entering a corrective Wave (4). The RSI is in overbought territory, suggesting a short-term pullback. Additionally, there are unfilled gaps near $85, which could act as downside targets in the upcoming corrective phase.

Technical Signals:

Elliott Wave Count: Wave (3) appears completed, setting up for a corrective (4) move.
RSI Overbought: The RSI is signaling a possible reversal.
Gap Fill Target: Unfilled gaps exist near $85, aligning with key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Resistance Zone: Price is approaching resistance between $95 - $96, making it a crucial level for rejection.
Support Levels: First support at $90.33 (Fib 0.382), followed by $87.21, and a final gap-fill zone near $85.


Wave (4) Correction:
A retracement toward the $90-$87 range is expected before the uptrend resumes.
This would shake out weak longs while setting up for Wave (5).
A Fib 0.382 retracement (around $90.50) could be a key level for Wave (4) to complete.

Wave (5) Potential Move:
If Wave (4) finds support, TLT could enter Wave (5) to new highs, potentially targeting $98 - $100+ before forming a larger top.
However, if the corrective structure extends beyond $85, it may indicate that a deeper ABC correction is in play.

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Let me know your thoughts!

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Ghi chú

playing out according to the chart. Let's see where it goes. Remember this might be a short term short set up.