TSLA Breakout Watch for Sept 18 – Bulls Testing Key Supply Level

Here’s my fresh read on Tesla heading into Wednesday’s session

1️⃣ Market Structure & Price Action
* Clean breakout attempt: TSLA pierced the descending trendline drawn from last week’s highs and closed around $429, holding above the 9 EMA and reclaiming short-term momentum.
* Support shelf: $421–422 zone (prior supply) flipped to support. This is the first line of defense on any early dip.
* Upside pivot: Price is grinding along an ascending intraday trendline that points toward the $435–440 area if momentum keeps up.
2️⃣ GEX (Options Flow) Insight

* Call dominance: Call flow is heavy with ~90% call premium, IVR ~19.6 (low), and IVx ~65.3 (normalizing).
* Big call walls: $432.5 and $436 show strong gamma with 67%+ call concentration, which can attract price if bulls stay in charge.
* Put defense: Major put support sits at $412–417.5. A break below $412 would flip sentiment and invite a fast move to $400.
3️⃣ Trade Thoughts
* Bullish swing / scalp: Buy pullbacks into $423–426 with a stop under $421. Targets $435, stretch $440+.
* Bearish fade: Only if TSLA loses $421 and the hourly closes below it. First target $409, extended $400.
4️⃣ Option Angle
* With call interest stacked and IV still moderate, short-dated call spreads or debit spreads around $430/$440 look attractive for a measured upside shot.
* Aggressive traders could sell puts below $410 for premium, but that’s only if you’re comfortable owning shares on a breakdown.
5️⃣ Personal Take
I like the constructive action. Tesla cleared a multi-day squeeze and is running with the broader tech bid. As long as $421 holds, the path of least resistance is up. I’m watching volume on any morning retest—if buyers show up, I’ll lean long.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational discussion only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.