Tesla (TSLA) and its multi-month bearish reversal pattern

20 thg 10, 2022

Tesla shares were driven lower during after-hour trade following their Q3 earnings report, despite Elon Musk later touting a “record breaking Q4”. But let’s keep is simple and look at a potential multi-month reversal pattern on the monthly chart, and Tesla’s potential to break lower this week.

Sometimes you really need to stand back to admire the view, and the monthly Tesla chart is no exception. Given it has risen over 22,000% since the stock was listed (and over 3,400% since the 2019 low alone) the Y-axis has been converted to logarithmic scale.

A couple of things really stand out. Volume peaked in February 2020 and has trended significantly over the past three years. Moreover, volume has been below average these past four months as buyers continue to lose steam. A head and shoulders reversal pattern is also in the making, with prices currently finding support around the neckline. If we used a standard chart the H&S pattern would measure a target around -$50 (yes, minus) but the logarithmic chart projects a move around $100 – which is roughly half of where it currently trades, and more realistic.

Whether we see the break lower or not may take time to come to fruition, given it is a weekly chart, but it is certainly a pattern to keep an eye on regardless.