US30Y Time for bond yields to reverse

12 thg 3, 2021

This is the U.S. Government Bond 30Y Yield from 1988 until today. I chose this hyper long-term chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame as with bonds being the talk of the month as for reasons that may move stocks, Gold etc lower, I wanted to get a good understanding of what the real long-term picture is.

This illustrates a clear and standard Channel Down. I have applied the Fibonacci levels on it. As you see the price is now testing the 0.618 retracement level, which is exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). The chart clearly shows that the MA50 and the MA100 (green trend-line have been acting as a Sell Zone since at least 1995 (where we can measure). We can see that only once over these decades did the price (marginally) break the 0.786 Fib (October/ November 2018). On all rejections within the MA50/100 Sell Zone, the price always pulled back to at least the 0.236 Fibonacci level.

That means that the upside is limited on the US30Y and we will most likely start seeing a bearish reversal soon.



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