USDCAD Could move 1,064pips up the next month.

The reasons why I strongly believe this move will happen are the following:

• According to the CFTC non-commercials are shorting CAD.
  

Non-commercials have 20,388 positions long and 68,914 positions shorts. This means that they are selling more CAD than they actually buying it. According to this info we could expect a move to the upside.

• From a monthly perspective there is plenty of buy side liquidity in USDCAD.
  

If you look at the chart you will see two blue circles and a dollar bill between them. Those highs have not been liquidated yet. The price is aggressively chasing those highs. According to the explanation provided the price is extremely bullish because is moving to a strong liquidity area.

• From monthly perspective the price already liquidates sell side liquidity.
  

If look at the chart you will see a yellow circle. The yellow circle represents the sell side liquidity that was liquidated by the price.

• The price has bullish structure.
  

The price is making higher highs will doing so liquidating sell side liquidity.

• There is a lot of optimists about the dollar getting stronger in the near future.
  

• DXY has bullish structure.
  

The DXY is currently making a retracement. It is currently at 50%. We could assume that is very close to be ready because it took sell side liquidity as well.

In other words, the CAD is getting weaker and the USD stronger.

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Bình luận:

The trade is active and on its way. It's very likely that we can see this movement happen faster than expected since the CAD is a bit more stable and stabilizing, and the dollar remains hot due to inflation.