I like trying USDCHF lower here.
i think the narrative is shifting slightly for USD. The latest fed meeting was relatively dovish and NFP last week came out somewhat weak. The CHF weaker narrative on dovish SNB seems to be a little stale now as well, while they could still be a little dovish the recent CPI data came out quite strong and i don't think the SNB will want their currency too much weaker from here.
correlations are suggesting now, inflation expectations and oil are moving lower and i think this could continue.
We have bearish TLT seasonals which could mean lower US yields helped by weaker US data/dovish fed if that continues. USDCHF seasonals also turn bearish around the middle of the month.
positioning is extremely short CHF and fairly long USD which should help limit upside in the pair.
I've put the stop above the price before the fed meeting and the CHF CPI data, i think if we go above those points it would likely mean the idea is wrong.
Not trading/investment advice, feedback welcome!
i think the narrative is shifting slightly for USD. The latest fed meeting was relatively dovish and NFP last week came out somewhat weak. The CHF weaker narrative on dovish SNB seems to be a little stale now as well, while they could still be a little dovish the recent CPI data came out quite strong and i don't think the SNB will want their currency too much weaker from here.
correlations are suggesting now, inflation expectations and oil are moving lower and i think this could continue.
We have bearish TLT seasonals which could mean lower US yields helped by weaker US data/dovish fed if that continues. USDCHF seasonals also turn bearish around the middle of the month.
positioning is extremely short CHF and fairly long USD which should help limit upside in the pair.
I've put the stop above the price before the fed meeting and the CHF CPI data, i think if we go above those points it would likely mean the idea is wrong.
Not trading/investment advice, feedback welcome!
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out at 0.8891 ahead of NFP