Ambiguous NFP and a busy week ahead

13 thg 1, 2020

Last week ended for the dollar is not the best way. Statistics on the US labor market came out slightly worse than expected: +145K new jobs outside agriculture instead of the expected +160K. On the one hand, it’s okay, but on the other hand, after +200K of employment from ADP, it seems to be not enough. On the whole, our predictions for NFPs based on statistical laws can be justified: two excesses by the fact of the forecast must be followed by lag from expectations.

Perhaps the most annoying thing for us happened in the USD/CAD pair. Recall, we recommended news trading. And the news came out almost ideal for reducing the pair: relatively weak data on the USA against the background of strong data on Canada (employment +35K with a forecast of +25K). But the decline in USD/CAD was very limited and earnings of 15-20 points cannot be considered as such.

Total, the week is clearly an asset to the dollar, but so far we see the growth of the dollar exclusively as an opportunity for its sales to be more expensive. And the numbers on the NFP have more likely confirmed our position than disproved. So this week we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales.

The main candidates for this are the pair with the Japanese yen and the British pound. The first is interesting to us as an asset-refuge and just the entry points themselves are magnificent. As for the British pound, Brexit is confidently moving in the right direction, but the pound has lingered. Accordingly, we expect that already this week he will rush to catch up.

In our opinion, another interesting asset for trading this week is gold. The inability of sellers to sell 1550 is the best confirmation of the appropriateness of buying gold. In any case, the deal is worthwhile: with relatively small stops (placed below 1440), goals can be set very ambitiously. Recall, we believe that gold should test 1800 this year.

The new week promises to be quite saturated with macroeconomic statistics, especially in the USA and Great Britain. Which, again, will almost certainly be accompanied by the appearance of points for entering positions.