Stable Central Banks, Turkish Lira and US Data

Yesterday can be called the day of the Central Banks: Bank of Japan, ECB and even the Bank of Turkey. Since all the above-listed central banks left their monetary policy parameters unchanged (as the markets expected), we did not see any serious price movements yesterday.

In general, oddly enough, the main intrigue was around the Bank of Turkey. The fact is that Erdogan is very dissatisfied with the current high rates of the Central Bank (17%) and has repeatedly stated the need to reduce them. But the Bank of Turkey demonstrated de facto independence and left 17% in the game. This means that the Turkish lira continues to remain extremely attractive from the position of carry trade. So sell USDTRY looks like a potentially very attractive trade.

A bunch of data were published yesterday related to the US labor and housing markets. Initial jobless claims were slightly better than forecasts and the previous value. But in general, 900K is a lot. More than three times higher than pre-pandemic levels: a quick economic recovery and V-shape as they are.

Meanwhile, Biden's optimism in the financial markets has subsided somewhat. The fuse lasted just a couple of days.
The oil market is also consolidating on the top. The data on oil stocks from the API showed unexpected growth, which puzzled buyers. However, who cares now about the real situation in the oil market, when $1.9 trillion are looming on the horizon.