With the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste.
For those who have been tracking the previous swing, the underlying Lira weakness is set to continue over the coming years with an eventual grind towards the widely tracked 7.8xx target since 2018.
Expecting markets to remain on the back-foot as long as Erdogan remains at the helm, this will dislocate from the USD devaluation as simply the TRY side is far weaker... all short and medium term flows will lack follow through so targeting 6.00 in Q120, and 6.50 in Q420 seems reasonable. For those really wanting to stick the knife into the bearish TRY story 7.80 in 24m.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
For those who have been tracking the previous swing, the underlying Lira weakness is set to continue over the coming years with an eventual grind towards the widely tracked 7.8xx target since 2018.
Expecting markets to remain on the back-foot as long as Erdogan remains at the helm, this will dislocate from the USD devaluation as simply the TRY side is far weaker... all short and medium term flows will lack follow through so targeting 6.00 in Q120, and 6.50 in Q420 seems reasonable. For those really wanting to stick the knife into the bearish TRY story 7.80 in 24m.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
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Notice how USDTRY is dislocated from the USD weakness...
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Starting to look very interesting
