The weekly close below 15.65 last week is rand positive heading into 2022. The next support I'm watching is 15.50. A break below 15.50 will allow the rand to pull the pair lower towards the bottom of the orange medium term channel between 15.16 and 15.30 (or the 100 day MA at 15.23)
Fundamentally however the Feds expected March rate hike will be dollar positive but I believe it may already be baked into the market.
Fundamentally however the Feds expected March rate hike will be dollar positive but I believe it may already be baked into the market.
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The rand did well to hold the pair to a daily close below the 50-day MA despite the heavy sell-off in risk assets during the session. A test of 15.50 still looks likely.
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The rand is leaving the 15.50 support in the dust following Powell's Fed statement yesterday and today's US CPI print. The pair is currently sitting just above the the major green support range. I'm not sure how much legs the rand has left but the rise in crude oil, the easing of the 10-year treasury yield curve, the drop in the DXY and the bounce in the US stock market is rand positive.