My take...there is no valid trade yet. Potential trade set ups are developing.
USDZAR's strong move down has paused, as it has before during this -19% decline since 11/13/17. Last pause was the recent consolidation.
Possible developments, trades & key areas:
- It could experience another consolidation period as it did during the last pause. If so, there will most likely be some good opportunities to make profit with short term (mostly intra day) trades. I personally recommend only taking the short trade. A valid trade would be in the upper consolidation range following a price action rejection. While consolidation range is not yet determine, my guess is it will be around 12.12 or less. Again, that still needs to be determined. (See 4H chart below for more specifics)
- We could have trend continuation. This would only be the trade with a confirmation of close below last low.
- The key areas are 12.22 - 12.26 resistance zone followed by ~12.307 resistance. All resistance zones are not exact, but general areas to watch price action. A resistance break of these areas indicates a possible/probable trend change. A close above these points is what's needed to change bias from bear to bull. Bullish price action close to resistance areas should be respected.
All of the possible developments/trades are yet to be determined. We need completed candles to validate a potential trade opportunity. Let price action lead entry versus predictions.
4H:
R/S zone areas that could form a consolidation range.
Also see 1M and 1W chart below:
1M:
Last candle not quite completed, but hit one of my key area points that I established as a point of interest to evaluate price action. As of now, it looks like the candle will most likely close with the price above the 1st point. The first point is very close to the 50% Fib extension.
1W:
Similar comments to above. The difference is the current weekly candle is not valid until the close of the week and should not be part of the evaluation. The last valid candle is a bear candle. USDZAR is definitely oversold and prime for a pullback.
1D:
USDZAR's strong move down has paused, as it has before during this -19% decline since 11/13/17. Last pause was the recent consolidation.
Possible developments, trades & key areas:
- It could experience another consolidation period as it did during the last pause. If so, there will most likely be some good opportunities to make profit with short term (mostly intra day) trades. I personally recommend only taking the short trade. A valid trade would be in the upper consolidation range following a price action rejection. While consolidation range is not yet determine, my guess is it will be around 12.12 or less. Again, that still needs to be determined. (See 4H chart below for more specifics)
- We could have trend continuation. This would only be the trade with a confirmation of close below last low.
- The key areas are 12.22 - 12.26 resistance zone followed by ~12.307 resistance. All resistance zones are not exact, but general areas to watch price action. A resistance break of these areas indicates a possible/probable trend change. A close above these points is what's needed to change bias from bear to bull. Bullish price action close to resistance areas should be respected.
All of the possible developments/trades are yet to be determined. We need completed candles to validate a potential trade opportunity. Let price action lead entry versus predictions.
4H:
Also see 1M and 1W chart below:
1M:
1W:
1D:
