Over the past four months, we repeated that oil prices were peaking and the downside was looming over the oil market. Despite the excess of bullish calls forecasting new ATH for oil prices, we stuck to our bearish bias. Indeed, a few months ago, we set price targets of 100 USD, 95 USD, and 90 USD for USOIL. After hitting the first two price targets, we still remain bearish and maintain a price target of 90 USD for WTI oil. Our views are based upon technical and fundamental factors.
Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL. Two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, reflect the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02 The weekly chart of USOIL shows 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA. The 20-week SMA appears to be reversing to the downside, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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