Oil hates uncertainty

29 thg 10, 2016

1 month ago today, OPEC unofficially decided that they would cut production by 32.5-33m br/day. That announcement sent oil into gains frenzy skyrocketing it to almost $52/barrel. That unofficial statement was not enough to make oil break the resistance and reach the expected price of $60/barrel. Now during the OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Vienna in Friday and Saturday things took a very different turn than hoped. Starting with the OPEC meeting on Friday, the members failed to come to a conclusion and cut production with the biggest opposer being Iraq. Saturday, leaks hint towards a non-conclusive meeting as well. This leads me to expect further movement south for oil over the next weekend. TP for me is $47. Still, I think no production cut could mean that oil tumbles more and thus I will be trading oil over the next month until their next meeting ONLY if it manages to break below the $47-46.8 area with relatively high volume and if indicators favour a short play.

29 thg 10, 2016

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Saturday meeting led to nowhere. Oil will go down over the next week with a 90% certainty.

31 thg 10, 2016

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Oil is moving unexpectedly rapid towards that $47 support. If after all the week's data we manage to break that, next inevitable support is $43.