Vedanta (M): Bullish, but at a critical decision point.

The stock is currently consolidating in a tight range after a historic, multi-decade breakout. The price is now coiling for its next major move. The key is whether the old resistance at ₹490 holds as new support.

📈 1. The Long-Term Context (The "Big Picture")

- Historic Breakout: After a long sideways trend, the stock finally broke its 14-year resistance line (dating back to April 2010) and subsequently set a new All-Time High (ATH) in December 2024.
- Consolidation Phase: Since that ATH, the stock has not rallied further but has entered a healthy sideways consolidation. This is a common pattern where a stock "digests" its massive gains and builds a new base.
- Failed Attempts: As you noted, there have been several attempts to break out of this new, smaller consolidation channel, but all have failed so far.

🔍 2. The Current Setup (The Decisive Range)
This consolidation has created two very clear levels that define the stock's next move:

- Short-Term Resistance: The ATH set in late 2024 (around Sep/Dec).
- Critical Support: The old long-term resistance level at ₹490. This is the most important level to watch.

The recent surge this month (+5.96% on 236.66 Million in volume) was another test of the top of this channel, which was not yet successful.

📊 3. Key Technical Indicators
The underlying momentum supports a bullish resolution:

- RSI: The Relative Strength Index is rising, showing that buying strength is quietly building.
- EMAs: The short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state, signaling positive momentum.

🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch
The price action in the coming days and weeks is critical. Monitor these two potential scenarios:

🐂 The Bullish Case (Continuation)
- Trigger: A decisive, high-volume breakout and close above the short-term resistance (the post-2024 ATH).
- Confirmation: This would confirm the consolidation phase is over and the next leg of the primary uptrend has begun.
- Target: The next logical price target is projected to be ₹650.

🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakdown)
- Trigger: The breakout fails, and selling pressure pushes the stock below the critical support floor.
- Confirmation: A high-volume close below ₹490. This would be a significant failure, as the "resistance-turned-support" level would have broken.
- Target: This breakdown would signal a deeper correction.

Conclusion
The bullish indicators (RSI, EMAs) combined with the recent high-volume surge suggest buyers are accumulating. The primary focus should be on the ₹490 level. As long as it holds, the bias remains bullish, and this is just a pause before the next rally to the ₹650 target.