Hello everyone
I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in the same direction. That means if short-term bonds(STB) rise,then long-term bond yields (LTB) should rise as well...so what is wrong ? Every time in history before a market crash these STB and LTB yiels were going in different directions - STB were rising whereas LTB were falling. We can talk about divergence.
Crash Confidence Indicator is in it s highest value since latest market crash in 2007 - that means that many investors believe that market crash is not going to happen... the same scenario was right before 2007 crash
Citi group‘s indicator about euphoria or panic in the stock market is in euphoria sector and is steadily rising
Another indicator..VIX ..is down 28%...that means that fear has crashed
Stocks are expensive relative to 10-year average earnings. We are above number 24 which is much higher than the long-term average of 16.
Relative to GDP,the US stock market looks very expensive
Now look at the chart below. As you can see there is the VIX indicator, SPX (S&P500 index) and 10-y Bond (blue line).
I found interesting correlations between these instruments. As you can see, before every market crash we had scenario when VIX fell and Bonds rised. Afterwards bonds lost their value,VIX skyrocketed and SPX and economy crashed. These days we have a lot of "positive" sentiment in Bonds and we are grateful that VIX is falling...really ? look at the chart...VIX is falling and bonds are rising. From history performance I expect an upcoming market crash in 2022...and in my personal opinion I expect this carsh in the beginning of June.
Take it serious, I am not joking and I put a lot of my time into this research.
Thank you for your time and good luck !
I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in the same direction. That means if short-term bonds(STB) rise,then long-term bond yields (LTB) should rise as well...so what is wrong ? Every time in history before a market crash these STB and LTB yiels were going in different directions - STB were rising whereas LTB were falling. We can talk about divergence.
Crash Confidence Indicator is in it s highest value since latest market crash in 2007 - that means that many investors believe that market crash is not going to happen... the same scenario was right before 2007 crash
Citi group‘s indicator about euphoria or panic in the stock market is in euphoria sector and is steadily rising
Another indicator..VIX ..is down 28%...that means that fear has crashed
Stocks are expensive relative to 10-year average earnings. We are above number 24 which is much higher than the long-term average of 16.
Relative to GDP,the US stock market looks very expensive
Now look at the chart below. As you can see there is the VIX indicator, SPX (S&P500 index) and 10-y Bond (blue line).
I found interesting correlations between these instruments. As you can see, before every market crash we had scenario when VIX fell and Bonds rised. Afterwards bonds lost their value,VIX skyrocketed and SPX and economy crashed. These days we have a lot of "positive" sentiment in Bonds and we are grateful that VIX is falling...really ? look at the chart...VIX is falling and bonds are rising. From history performance I expect an upcoming market crash in 2022...and in my personal opinion I expect this carsh in the beginning of June.
Take it serious, I am not joking and I put a lot of my time into this research.
Thank you for your time and good luck !