🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 11 - March 15]

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This week, international gold prices have continuously increased sharply, from 2,079 USD/oz to 2,195 USD/oz and closing at 2,178 USD/oz.

Gold prices rose sharply as the US economy added 275,000 jobs in February 2024, surpassing expectations. However, there were downward revisions to job numbers in January and December. The unemployment rate in the US also increased from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in February. Concerns arise about potential downward adjustments in future employment data releases.

The US labor market seems to be starting to absorb the blow from the FED's continuous monetary tightening. This causes the market to increase expectations that the FED will start cutting interest rates next June.

US inflation has decreased but slightly exceeded expectations. FED Chairman Powell is satisfied with the current data but wants more confirmation before cutting interest rates. The upcoming February CPI announcement will be closely watched. A higher than expected CPI may reduce rate cut expectations and lead to profit-taking by gold investors, while it could also increase gold prices further.

While gold prices are expected to continue rising in the medium and long term, they may experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking before resuming their upward trend.

📌Technically, the gold price is in wave 5 of the Elliott wave model and could reach a target range of 2300 Fibo 361 to 2600 Fibo 461 based on Fib Extension milestones. It is difficult to predict the record high price without more information, so we need to wait for time to provide an answer. This week, the weekly fluctuation range is over 100, and the trading plan for next week includes selling near the 2300 resistance mark and buying if the price adjusts back to the 2100 resistance mark.

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The gold price chart is rising to new levels. The CCI indicator suggests it is overbought, but the daily candle setup remains positive. In the past six sessions, gold has consistently increased, making it hard for short-term sellers to enter the market. There may be a brief consolidation period with support levels at $2,100/oz. and $2,081/oz., but gold is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.

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SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2201 - 2199⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2205

→Take Profit 1 2194
↨
→Take Profit 2 2189

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2134 - 2136⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2130

→Take Profit 1 2141
↨
→Take Profit 2 2145

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This week saw gold continue to push higher and make a couple of fresh record highs. The precious metal is being driven ever higher on a combination of increased rate cut expectations, Chinese demand, and safe haven buying.

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Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly.

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The best data point in the CPI report?

Lower food price inflation.

At 1.0% YoY, that was the smallest increase we’ve seen since June 2021, down from a peak of 13.5% in August 2022.

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Positive employment data and rising CPI will make it impossible for the Fed to think about lowering the USD operating rate. Maintaining interest rates at the current high level may continue until 2024 to ensure inflation reaches the target level of 2%, instead of cutting it next June as previously forecast.

The prediction that the Fed will not be able to lower interest rates has caused investors to sell off gold. Because the cost of borrowing to invest and deposit gold is more expensive. Along with that, the world gold price has recently increased too high compared to the real base level of this asset. It is forecast that profit taking will continue in the short term.

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Gold prices fell sharply after US February PPI data was higher than expected, making the market increasingly concerned that inflation in the US may continue and affect interest rate cuts. Fed rates.