GOLD increased strongly after FOMC, pay attention to NFP

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After the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, XAUUSD surged toward all-time highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that US jobs data will begin to play an important role in setting monetary policy.

Economic data
U.S. economic data showed private hiring slowed in July, according to ADP's latest jobs change report. Additionally, building permits improved after a decline in May, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which the Fed uses to measure wage inflation pressures, fell in the second quarter. year 2024.

FOMC
The Federal Reserve once again decided to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. This is the 8th consecutive meeting of the Federal Reserve without adjusting interest rates.
Powell said deflation has “extended” and noted downside risks to the labor market.
“We think the current labor market is unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure,” Powell added, saying that if they see a decline in the job market, “we will respond.”
Following these comments, Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report will be a key link in the Fed's move to focus more on employment. After Powell's speech, market participants were pricing in a 70 basis point (bps) interest rate cut later this year.

Fed policy statement
In their monetary policy statement, Fed officials noted that "The Committee believes it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% sustainably and the risks associated with dual mandates have become more balanced.”

Traders should pay special attention to the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for July and nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which will be released on Thursday and Friday.

Geopolitical risks escalate
Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the New York Times reported on Wednesday that three Iranian officials said Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the leader's murder. Hamas Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the assassination.
The report indicates that three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guard, said Khamenei issued the order at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council this morning. Wednesday. Not long ago, Iran announced that Haniyeh had been killed.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
After gold increased significantly, reaching the target level at 2,437 USD and breaking this level, the gold price is now fully qualified to move towards an all-time peak.
The current correction cycle has technically ended with the closest support for gold prices being noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point.

The main trend is noticed with the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
As long as gold remains above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has enough room to rise in the short term with the target level being an all-time high. Meanwhile, even if gold corrects below $2,437, the decline will be limited by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21.

During the day, gold's technical outlook is bullish with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,437 – 2,408USD
Resistance: 2,484USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2475 - 2473

⚰️SL: 2479

⬆️TP1: 2468
⬆️TP2: 2463

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422

⚰️SL: 2416

⬆️TP1: 2427
⬆️TP2: 2432

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🔴Final US Manufacturing PMI Data Released

According to the data, the final reading of the Manufacturing PMI was 49.6 points in July, slightly higher than market expectations of around 49.5 points, and the previous reading of the index was around 49.5 points in June.

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Gold price today reached 2,435 USD/ounce. Before that, there was a time when the precious metal reached 2,446 USD. In the previous July, world gold also increased by more than 4%.

The gold market recently went up after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that he could discuss reducing interest rates at the September meeting. Powell affirmed that the Fed is "increasingly confident". believes action is possible in the upcoming session", as long as inflation figures continue to cool.

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Giao dịch đang hoạt động

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The market is expecting the Fed to lower interest rates very sharply in the upcoming meeting

Nonfarm payrolls report shows unemployment rate skyrocketing from 4.1% to 4.3%

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XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected.

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Gold prices have fluctuated rapidly in the past week, when they skyrocketed, they also quickly "collapsed" under pressure from investors to take profits. However, both analysts and experts believe that gold prices will continue to increase when supported by many factors

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From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485.

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The ISM services PMI index increased 2.6 points to 51.4. This index is slightly higher than economists' forecasts. The gain was driven by a recovery in employment, orders and business activity, which showed much of the economy was growing at a modest pace. Reports last week showed a weakening labor market and a decline in the manufacturing sector, raising fears of a recession and suffering global financial markets.