Gold/Oil correlation

4 thg 1, 2019

Pretty good correlation between the price of oil and gold probably because they are both mainly tied to the dollar. Examine the last five years or so on the weekly scale and gold seems to lead moves in oil by about six months. Wait for a confirmed breakout in gold (break above a downtrend or resistance) to start building a position.

4 thg 1, 2019

Ghi chú

...to start building a position in oil.

4 thg 1, 2019

Ghi chú

Other factors to consider that may be bullish for oil in the medium term:
1. Shale oil companies are heavily indebted and produce negative cash flow ( business model relies on cheap borrowing to fund exploration/drilling that produces product that they essentially sell for a loss )
2. Production decline in new shale wells is accelerating.

29 thg 1, 2019

Ghi chú

Gold futures breakout above downtrend line that started in '12. Long gold, long oil.