Fundamental Analysis Upbeat US growth reports and initial jobless claims have pushed back expectations of a deeper Federal Reserve rate cut in September, weighing on non-yielding gold. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine could boost safe-haven demand, benefiting the yellow metal.
Investors will be closely watching US inflation data for further insight into the potential size of the Fed’s rate cut. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is estimated to have risen 2.7% year-on-year in July, up from 2.6% in June. A weaker-than-expected PCE reading could prompt the Fed to start a rate-cutting cycle, acting as a bullish catalyst for XAU/USD.
Technical Analysis Gold is pushing higher in the European session ahead of an all-time high. If the resistance at 2525 is broken before the US session starts, we will see a new ATH around 2450. In the event that gold is pushed below 2525 and the US enters, it could push gold deeper into the current support at 2503-2494 as a hurdle ahead before heading towards 2485 to end a volatile Friday for gold.
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