Middle East escalates, GOLD recovery limited by 2,400 USD

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When tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalated over the weekend, after the opening of the Asian trading session on Monday (July 29), spot gold prices jumped by 15 USD in the short term and gold prices sometimes exceeded past the mark of 2,400 USD/ounce.

On July 27, a rocket attack hit a soccer field in Megidar Shams, a town in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers playing soccer. 44 others were injured.
This was Israel's worst civilian loss since Hamas launched attacks on villages and military bases in southern Israel from the Gaza Strip last October.
On the night of July 28, local time, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement saying that after a 4-hour meeting, the Israeli government's Security Cabinet meeting ended late at night on the 28th and the meeting authorized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Prime Minister of Israel.

Despite recent volatility, gold maintains its underlying bias toward solid gains as markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by the end of the quarter. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market has fully priced in a September rate cut.

The latest inflation data won't stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in September. The Fed is increasingly expected to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September, at least at its meeting on this week.
While the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be the main economic event this week, some attention will also be directed to the U.S. Department of Labor due to July nonfarm payrolls data. announced on Friday.

In addition to cooling inflation, expectations of slowing growth in the US labor market will cause the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before the end of the year.
The Fed is not the only central bank holding a monetary policy meeting this week. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with market expectations that the central bank will also cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting later on Tuesday.

Notable economic data and events
Tuesday: US consumer confidence; JOLTS Jobs; Monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Japan
Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Payrolls; US Pending Home Sales,
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims, ISM manufacturing PMI
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Although gold has recovered, temporary gains are still limited by the original price level of 2,400 USD, which is also noted as an important target resistance level.

For the gold price to have adequate conditions for upside, it needs to break above the $2,400 technical level and the next targeted target level at $2,408 in the short term, more so than the $2,437 price point. of Fibonacci retracement 0.236%.

Temporarily, gold is not yet qualified to form a complete bullish cycle, while once gold falls below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level it will tend to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level, and a Once the $2,362 level is broken below, a new bearish cycle is likely with a target around $2,329.

During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans more to the downside with conditions for a new bullish cycle noted above. Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2414 - 2412

⚰️SL: 2418

⬆️TP1: 2407
⬆️TP2: 2402

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2377 - 2379

⚰️SL: 2373

⬆️TP1: 2384
⬆️TP2: 2389

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Ghi chú

Total demand for bullion in the first half of the year fell nearly 6% year-on-year to 524 tons, according to the World Gold Council's quarterly report. Data also shows that jewelry purchases in the second quarter plummeted 52%, according to Bloomberg calculations.

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🔴The dollar rises strongly and leads safe havens.. and the shekel collapses against it with losses of 1.8%

The US dollar rose in trading today, Monday, before the US opening by more than 0.3%, supported by an attempt at a safe haven with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, while the British pound declines before the Bank of England meeting this week to set monetary policy.

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Gold prices fell in the trading session on Monday (July 29), as the USD strengthened before the US Federal Reserve (Fed) began its two-day monetary policy meeting. Although gold prices are struggling at prices below 2,400 USD/oz, some analysts believe that gold prices are still capable of setting a new record this year.

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Gold prices maintain a "modest" upward momentum as investors wait for the Fed's policy meeting to find new motivation

Gold prices increased slightly during the Asian session on Tuesday, stabilizing below the $2,400/oz mark. The underwhelming stock market, along with geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, are the main factors supporting this safe-haven asset. Besides, the growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin an interest rate cutting cycle in September is weighing on the USD and continuing to support gold prices.

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🔻US Consumer Confidence Index Positive and Better Than Expectations Again!

Data released by the Conference Board a short while ago showed that the US Consumer Confidence Index data for the current month of July was positive, as the index reading was better than market expectations for the third consecutive month.

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XAUUSD decreased slightly after a significant recovery period, at the Asian trading session on July 31, gold decreased slightly from the Fibonacci level of 0.382% to 2,405USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.25% on the day.

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For the Forex market, the July meeting coincided with the period when the market was pricing in a very sharp reduction in interest rates in the absence of a clear hawkish result to support the USD's increase. Therefore, this could be a rather bland event. This is especially true if the meeting follows JPMorgan's baseline scenario, with slight adjustments to the guidance in the statement, and will not elaborate on the prospect of lowering interest rates in the future other than September.

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Pending home sales in the US rose 4.8% to 74.3 in June, reflecting increases in all four major regions. The increase far exceeded estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge is pulling away from record lows in data dating back to 2001 as the housing market tries to escape a prolonged downturn. Mortgage interest rates have dropped somewhat recently, encouraging more homeowners to list their properties.

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🔴Final US Manufacturing PMI Data Released

According to the data, the final reading of the Manufacturing PMI was 49.6 points in July, slightly higher than market expectations of around 49.5 points, and the previous reading of the index was around 49.5 points in June.

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Ghi chú

Gold price today reached 2,435 USD/ounce. Before that, there was a time when the precious metal reached 2,446 USD. In the previous July, world gold also increased by more than 4%.

The gold market recently went up after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that he could discuss reducing interest rates at the September meeting. Powell affirmed that the Fed is "increasingly confident". believes action is possible in the upcoming session", as long as inflation figures continue to cool.

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The market is expecting the Fed to lower interest rates very sharply in the upcoming meeting

Nonfarm payrolls report shows unemployment rate skyrocketing from 4.1% to 4.3%

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XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected.

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From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485.