XAUUSD Potential Forecast | PRE-NFP | 9th March 2023

9 thg 3, 2023

Welcome back guys.

In today's analysis, I will be talking about GOLD and the future where price can be headed towards.
GOLD has fell a whopping 485 pips since the start of the week.

Fundamental backdrop
1. GOLD's strong bearish pressure was credited to Fed Powell's speech that "Fed is prepared to speed up rate rises if warranted by data releases".
2. Since then, not just has GOLD fell close to 500 pips, a few US data releases has coincided nicely with Powell's speech.
3. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 242000 jobs compared to a forecasted 197000 and 119000 previous.
4. JOLTS Job Openings came out at 10.82m compared to a forecasted 10.58m, beating expectations.
5. All eyes will be on NFP releasing tomorrow.
6. Given the recent strong USD fundamental news release, there is reason to believe that the NFP print will come out stronger than expected, which will highlight the resilience of the US economy once again.

Technical context
1. Price reacted off a key supply zone at 1856 odds and since fell close to 500 pips.
2. Key level of resistance at 1830 odds is an area I will be looking at for short opportunities.
3. Another great confluence to have is for current price to break the low at 1804.82 first before retracing up.
4. This would serve as a break of structure.
5. Target #1 has been marked out at 1766 and if NFP comes out to be strong again, we can see added bullish pressure onto USD and bearish continuations onto GOLD.

Risk management
1. However, if NFP print comes out poor, we can see the whole bullish pressure on USD being overtaken by the bears as the market has not priced in a poor NFP print and the market sentiments surrounding the USD will shift.

This will be the pre NFP chart analysis on GOLD.

Trade safe everyone.
Market has been extremely data driven since the past year or so.
Risk safely.
Let me know in the comments if you guys would want to see a post NFP forecast.

Regards,
Chern Yu