XAUUSD analysis - potential for pullback and continuation

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XAUUSD is currently consolidating near $3,310 after a decisive breakdown below the ascending trendline, signaling a shift in the short-term structure from bullish to bearish. This breakdown was accompanied by strong bearish momentum, indicating that buyers have temporarily lost control of the market.

After the initial drop, the price is now attempting to retrace toward the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone, with the 0.618 level located around $3,335. This zone also coincides with dynamic resistance from short-term moving averages (EMA cluster), making it an important confluence area. A rejection from this level would confirm a bearish retest, supporting the idea of a continuation toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near the $3,225 level.

However, if the price breaks and holds above $3,348, the bearish scenario will be invalidated, potentially signaling that buyers are regaining strength and may aim to reclaim higher resistance levels.

Traders are advised to wait for confirmation, such as a bearish engulfing candle, rejection wicks, or a surge in volume, before entering short positions. As always, this is a personal viewpoint, not financial advice. Trade with appropriate risk management.

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