GOLD → Further direction depends on PCE and traders' perceptions

28 thg 6

XAUUSD strengthens on the news as traders took it as a possible easing of inflation. The dollar under pressure is favorable for gold.



Ahead of the core PCE, traders expect inflation to ease from 2.8 to 2.6
If inflation data points to a slowdown in inflation, the gold price is likely to recover as the US dollar will be under strong selling pressure. This fact could be a kind of signal for a possible interest rate cut in the US in the fall (which everyone is waiting for). On the contrary, the US dollar may continue to strengthen and put pressure on the gold price if the data is unexpected....
On Thursday, mixed data on the growth of the US economy, put downward pressure on the US dollar. This helped the gold price to strengthen to 2330.
Technically, the price is testing the liquidity area where the bears may enter the fray. A false breakdown of the previously broken channel boundary may lead to another selloff.

Resistance levels: 2340, 2352
Support levels: 2332, 2319

Gold is currently in the selling zone and traders do not believe in the possible growth, the priority is to consider the price decline, but do not rush to conclusions! Ahead of the news, a change in the fundamental environment will attract investors and we may see a breakdown of 2340 and growth to 2360, but if the fundamental background does not change, an impulse to 2300 may be formed.

Regards R. Linda!

28 thg 6

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False breakdown of resistance is formed
Negative background persists, news was neutral

29 thg 6

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Closing of the trading session on Friday is below its opening
The rebound from the specified area forms the beginning of the downward impulse...

30 thg 6

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Medium-term outlook for gold:
The market is still weak, locally there may be some redemption opportunities or bullish impulses that may quickly change to squeezes, but on D1-W1-M1 the outlook is rather questionable. On the high timeframe, the overall environment is in favor of the bears:

On the 1-day chart.
Negative fundamental background
False breakdown of MA-50
False breakdown of 0.5 Fibo
Downtrend channel (local)
Structure breakdown confirming bear market
Local reversal candlestick pattern

On the 1 month chart
False resistance breakout
Weak bullish candlestick pattern indicates a stumble and possible reversal
Below the imbalance area at 2275

Fundamental:
There is a lot of news this week that can generally change the fundamental backdrop, but then the market not only needs a hint of weakening inflation but also a clear and strong confirmation. In general, it is too early to believe in this yet.

Traders are waiting for ISM and Powell's speech at the beginning of the week, who may touch upon monetary policy, inflation and interest rate in his speech.
Further focus on ISM, FOMC Meeting Minutes, as well as Friday's NFP, in which traders expect a practical halving of the indicator, which may shake the market.

30 thg 6

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The market may go into a consolidation phase as we approach the news.
Most likely this trading week will go this way: consolidation, transition to a sharp impulse and then consolidation, as we are waiting for a lot of news....

30 thg 6

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Opening is calm, resistance retest is possible

1 thg 7

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The market is testing the local low of 2318