Tom Lee cools on $250K Bitcoin call, year-end ATH now just a ‘maybe’

BitMine chair Tom Lee has seemingly eased off his widely promoted $250,000 year-end Bitcoin forecast, now only giving it a “maybe” that Bitcoin can reclaim its October all-time high of $125,100 before the end of the year.

“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” Lee said during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.

This appears to be the first time Lee has publicly softened his $250,000 year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target, which he initially floated earlier in 2024 and continued to reiterate through early October. 

Lee’s prediction was one of the more bullish. Other crypto executives, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, warned around October that “crazy stuff” would need to happen for Bitcoin to reach that level.

That being said, Lee said some of Bitcoin's strongest days may still lie ahead before the end of 2025.

“I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end,” he said, with 35 days remaining until the end of 2025. 

Bitcoin holders will need to keep guessing, says exec 

Lee pointed out Bitcoin’s tendency to make the majority of its gains over a small number of trading sessions each year, noting that the asset typically “makes its move” in just 10 days annually.

The idea is widely shared among industry executives. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in a February 2024 X post that while investors cannot predict when those days will be, missing Bitcoin’s best 10 days historically means missing nearly all of its returns.

In 2024, Bitcoin’s strongest 10 days delivered a combined return of 52%, while the remaining 355 days generated an average return of -15%.

Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since Oct. 10, pressured by a $19 billion liquidation across the crypto market that followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. 

It only reclaimed the $90,000 level on Wednesday after spending six consecutive days below it.

This is despite November historically being the strongest month on average for Bitcoin since 2013, according to CoinGlass. 

Meanwhile, economist Timothy Peterson said on Monday that Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in, or will occur this week.

Lee has been hit and miss with his Bitcoin predictions

If Bitcoin fails to hit Lee’s prediction, it would not be the first time one of Lee’s Bitcoin forecasts has fallen short. 

In January 2018, Lee said that Bitcoin could reach as high as $125,000 by 2022, but it took another three years to get there, only reaching that level this past October.

However, Lee has also made accurate price calls, too.

In July 2017, Lee projected that in a base-case scenario, Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022, while a more bullish outlook could see a potential price as high as $55,000 over the same period.

Bitcoin ended up reaching $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, according to CoinMarketCap.