XAU/USD: Gold’s Unstoppable Rally Breaks $3,800 to Hit New All-Time High. When Pullback?

Stocks? Crypto? US dollar? The usual portfolio gainers all take a step back and bow to this year’s returns king. Gold shines bright with 47% on the year.

💰 Gold Smashes $3,800

• Gold XAUUSD is ripping out there. Bullion burst to a record $3,820 per ounce Monday before easing to $3,810, flexing a 47% year-to-date gain. Forget Bitcoin’s 17% or the S&P 500’s 13% — the yellow metal just stole the whole performance crown.
• The rally’s been relentless, with gold posting green candles in 10 of the past 14 sessions. It’s become the ultimate “don’t panic” asset, crushing every other largecap player in 2025.
• Traders aren’t asking “is gold hot?” anymore. The question now: go long, fade the rally, or sit tight with popcorn while the shiny show keeps running?

🔥 Why the Rally May Not Quit

• One key thing is driving this. Lower interest rates are the secret sauce. With the Fed already cutting and more trims likely in the cards for October, Treasuries look less attractive — meaning the opportunity cost of holding zero-yielding gold vanishes.
• Inflation isn’t exactly gone either. Core PCE stuck at 2.9% in August, keeping gold’s hedge appeal intact. Sticky prices + dovish Fed = perfect storm for bullion buyers.
• Add tariffs to the mix. Trump’s latest moves on drugs, trucks, and furniture have traders rushing back to the safe-haven toolkit.And what do you know — gold is a top choice again.

👀 The Structural Bid

• Central banks, a fundamental gold-market participant, are stacking gold like it’s going out of style. The US, China, Russia, and Turkey are all piling into reserves, creating a floor under prices no matter what hedge funds are doing.
• Political chaos and dollar weakness add fuel to the fire. The greenback is lower by roughly 10% this year, while US politics just keep gifting gold bugs new reasons to hit the Buy button.
• Bottom line: gold thrives when confidence falters. Right now, faith in the economy, the dollar, and the political backdrop is fraying all at once while interest rates are looking to make everything more affordable.